“Nothing Succeeds Like Success or Success Is Not Always What It Seems To Be” 

Many people rush to buy success books that they believe will give them the recipe they need to replicate the success of other people, at other times, and in other places. 

And why not? The human mind looks for meaning. It looks for cause and effect relationships. We like nothing better than to be able to quantify the “why” so that we can achieve success or avoid failure, and in 21st Century America, we tend to see success as an outcome of exceptional skill.

I saw an interview with actor and philanthropist Paul Newman in which he said something like this:

“Anyone who achieves the kind of success that I have, and doesn’t admit that luck has played the bigger
part in it, is just not being honest.”

Is this humility speaking, or truth? Both, I think.

This month Harvard Business Review Published a thoughtful and compelling article titled “Are ‘Great’ Companies Just Lucky?” by Michael Raynor, Mumtaz Ahmed and Andrew D. Henderson.

In the words of the authors of the article:
 
“We evaluated 287 allegedly high-performing companies in 13 major success studies. We found that only about one in four of those firms was likely to be remarkable; the rest were indistinguishable from mediocre firms catching lucky breaks.

By our method, even in the study with the best hit rate, only slightly more than half the high performers had profiles that were credibly attributable to something special about the firms. In short, what qualifies as remarkable performance is anything but self-evident.”

Put more simply, when looking at successful companies "random outcomes" are probably more likely than special effort or wisdom. 

The reason this matters is that we see meaning where there isn’t any, we are likely to codify practices that won’t benefit us or the wider society. 


For those of who like a story to illustrate the power of a point, the authors share this account. 

In one of MIT Professor Rebecca Henderson’s classes, Henderson
asked all 70 of her students to stand up. She then asked each of them to toss a coin, and sit down if the toss came up “tails.” Those who got “heads” were to remain standing, with the process continuing until only one student remained standing.  
According to the article, Professor Henderson recounts the ending of the classroom experience this way:

“With the appropriate theatrics, I approach the student and say:

‘How did you do that?
Seven heads in a row!
Can I interview you in Fortune?
Is it the T-shirt (you are wearing)?
Is it the flick of the wrist?
Can I write a case study about you?’”


So, does the power of randomness or luck mean that we can't play any role in our own success?  Of course not.  We need to be prepared, know our stuff, and be ready to step up.  We need to ask for opportunities, and not be afraid to succeed.   
Read the article and find out more about this research study and others at the Harvard Business School.